Forecast on the Political and Military Trends of Japan Based on the Impact of Trump's Geopolitical Decisions

Abstract

This paper employs the methods of trend extrapolation and primary source interpretation to conduct an in-depth analysis of the impact of the Trump administration’s policy changes on Japan’s political and military trends. The article first reviews the traditional U. S. national strategy and the Rimland Theory, highlighting how the United States maintains its global hegemony by containing regional powers on the Eurasian continent. It then examines the shift in the Trump administration’s international political decisions against the backdrop of the Russia-Ukraine war, analyzing its strategic intentions of easing relations with Russia and containing China. Building on this, the paper provides a detailed analysis of Japan’s geopolitical background, arguing that Japan’s strategic choices are deeply influenced by Spykman’s Rimland Theory. Japan is gradually enhancing its influence in East Asia through measures such as“de facto political normalization, ”military transformation, and the construction of multilateral alliances. The study finds that Japan, as a typical rimland state, is seeking a balance between China and the United States by combining economic cooperation with military deterrence. Japan is also accelerating military modernization, strengthening its alliance with the United States, and actively expanding its strategic space in the Indo-Pacific region. However, Japan’s strategy of“dependent autonomy”faces numerous challenges, including over-reliance on U. S. security commitments and uncertainties in domestic politics. The paper concludes that Japan’s strategic choices not only reflect its practice of the Rimland Theory but also demonstrate its long-term vision of reshaping the East Asian order in the era of great power competition. Whether Japan can successfully achieve this goal depends on its ability to balance alliance dependence and strategic autonomy.